Um artigo de Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen ewscreveu um artigo, do qual felizmente o blog Irish Economy publicou uma tradução integral em inglês sobre o programa de apoio à Irlanda no qual considera que este programa apenas adia o problema e que o encargos para a economia irlandesa associados ao mesmo poderão dentro de alguns anos ascender a cerca de 10% do PIB e que essa situação não é politicamente sustentável, comparando-a mesmo com a situação da Alemanha no pós I Guerra Mundial, nem economicamente sustentável porque irá exigir uma "desvalorização interna" dos salários e cortes orçamentais incomportáveis.

Sintomaticamente este artigo surge ao mesmo tempo de um artigo de Kevin O'Rourke (reproduzido por Krugman no seu blog) onde refere:

"(...) we are about to have a general election, and if Brussels thinks that this deal is not going to be the big issue in that election, then they are even more out of touch than we already think they are. It is no longer even certain that the budget will be passed in December. Brussels may not have a Plan B, but they had better prepare one nonetheless.
Irish citizens may bring down the bailout of foreign bank creditors by voting at the ballot box, but if they do not, they will bring about a default of some kind by voting with their feet. We now face a negative spiral in which austerity causes emigration, which increases the burden of the debt, which ultimately leads to more austerity. (...)
Iceland is an obvious model for us. In a referendum, her voters have already rejected a proposal to pay back their banks’ creditors, who will take major losses. Now they have elected a constitutional assembly charged with drafting a new constitution. Ireland probably needs this more than does Iceland; I wish I were more confident that we will follow the latter’s example."