quinta-feira, 15 de setembro de 2011

Avaliação do Programa de Ajustamento Económico e Financeiro

A Comissão Europeia divulgou a primeira avaliação do Programa de Ajsutamento Económico e Financeiro para Portugal.

"It is the joint assessment of the three institutions that the programme is on track. The new government that took office on 21 June is fully committed to the programme agreed in May 2011 and has already shown its determination by reacting quickly to evidence of an emerging shortfall in public finances and by moving ahead with some important structural reforms.

The macroeconomic scenario of the programme remains valid. Economic growth and inflation for the year as a whole are expected to remain in line with the programme. Export growth has been strong; consumer confidence indicators are steady; and employment has remained broadly stable. While GDP is expected to contract in 2011 and 2012, a recovery is projected to begin taking hold in early 2013. Near-term risks to the scenario appear broadly balanced. GDP growth in the second quarter has been more favourable than expected, but the external environment is less favourable than previously assumed.

Recent data pointed to an opening gap between fiscal trends and the 2011 deficit targets. Expenditure overruns in the first half of the year, underperforming non-tax revenue and the reclassification of some operations led to a projected shortfall of about 1.1 percent of GDP. The net costs related to the sale of the troubled bank BPN will add another 0.2 percent of GDP to the headline deficit. The authorities have reacted promptly. Budget execution is being tightened; a one-off surcharge on the personal income tax has been introduced; increases in VAT on natural gas and electricity have been brought forward from next year to 1 October; sales of concessions will be stepped up. The ongoing process of a phased transfer of banks pension funds to the state social security system will exceptionally provide a buffer towards meeting the 5.9 percent of GDP deficit target in 2011."

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