domingo, 26 de maio de 2013

Ler os outros: Keynesianismo na zona euro - Rogoff e Krugman

A propósito deste texto de Kenneth Rogoff sobre os efeitos de uma política expansionista orçamental no contexto da zona euro no qual argumenta que uma política orçamental alemã expansionista não constitui uma solução simples para os problemas da zona euro, defendendo como alternativas: i) uma reestruturação das dívidas, ii) um período prolongado de inflação moderada e iii) a assunção pela Alemanha de uma parte dois custos - diretamente ou através de um sistema de garantias, Krugman reage num texto no qual defende que embora "Everyone with a bit of sense has argued all along that Europe has a big problem resulting from the single currency: there was a sharp rise in relative costs and prices in the periphery during the boom years, and the process of correcting that overvaluation through “internal devaluation” is extremely difficult and painful", os argumentos keynesianos são que, por um lado, "this inherently difficult situation is made worse by two aspects of fiscal policy. One is the extreme austerity being imposed on the periphery; nobody is suggesting stimulus for, say, Portugal, but the question is whether a less extreme austerity regime might not do almost as well at limiting debt while internal devaluation takes place, while hugely reducing the human cost" e, por outro lado que "on any kind of rational pan-European basis, we should be seeing austerity in the periphery at least partly offset by stimulus in the core. What we have instead is substantial austerity in the core too.(...) Surely the terrible adjustment problem facing the periphery would be at least somewhat easier if the core weren’t doing this; looser fiscal policy would directly help their exports, and it would also help promote, yes, somewhat higher German inflation, helping achieve internal devaluation. (...)".

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