Análise do FMI sobre a economia dos EUA

O FMI divulgou ontem a sua análise sobre a economia dos EUA:

"The U.S. economy continues to recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, aided by supportive macroeconomic policies. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative, with policy rates near zero and a significantly expanded Federal Reserve balance sheet. Fiscal policy provided a sizable stimulus to demand over 2009–2010, but the fiscal impulse for the current fiscal year is likely to be about zero. The financial system continues to strengthen, although lending conditions remain tight for some segments. Household balance-sheet repair has continued amidst still declining house prices and high unemployment rates, weighing on consumption, while construction activity remains depressed. Corporate spending and hiring remain relatively weak, despite record-high profit growth and easy financing conditions for large firms. GDP growth slowed from 2¾ percent (saar) in the second half of 2010 to just under 2 percent (saar) in the first half of 2011, reflecting inter alia the impact of higher oil prices and several transient factors. The U.S. current account deficit has moved broadly sideways as higher oil prices have offset the effects of strong external demand and the dollar’s depreciation. Overall, the slow pace of the recovery is consistent with past international experience in the aftermath of housing and financial crises.

The outlook is for continued albeit modest growth. With sluggish private domestic demand economic slack remains large: in particular, the unemployment rate has declined only modestly from its recent peak. As a result, inflation pressures will likely remain contained, despite the recent firming in core inflation. Risks are elevated and tilted to the downside, especially from the housing market and possible global financial market disruptions from the sovereign crisis in Europe."

Neste contexto, o FMI considera que embora seja necessário assegurar a estabilidade das finanças públicas nos EUA a sitruação económica aconselha uma retirada cautelosa dos apoios orçamentais à actividade económica, aleratndo para a importância de um acordo relativamente ao aumento do limite da dívida federal e a um plano de ajustamento orçamental no médio longo prazo, defendendo que esse  esforço de consolidação orçamental deverá começar em 2012 e ser acompanhado, durante um período considerável, pela manutenção de uma política monetária acomodatícia.