A Moody's justifica a sua decisão de descer o rating da dívida da Grécia de Ca from Caa1 com base no "announced EU support programme and debt exchange proposals by major financial institutions implies that private creditors will incur substantial economic losses on their holdings of government debt. considrando que "The announced EU programme along with the Institute of International Finance's (IIF's) statement (representing major financial institutions) implies that the probability of a distressed exchange, and hence a default, on Greek government bonds is virtually 100%. The magnitude of investor losses will be determined by the difference between the face value of the debt exchanged and the market value of the debt received. The IIF has indicated that investor losses are likely to be in excess of 20%".
Mais importante, contudo, é o facto de a Moody's, embora reconhecendo que as medidas contribuem para melhorar a sustentabilidade das finanças públicas da Grécia e conter o efeito de contágio que teria resultado de uma situação de incumprimento, considerar que "Greece will still face medium-term solvency challenges: its stock of debt will still be well in excess of 100% of GDP for many years and it will still face very significant implementation risks to fiscal and economic reform".