domingo, 12 de outubro de 2008

E se "salvar" os bancos não for suficiente ?

(Re)lendo o relatório do FMI (Global Financial Stability Report) notei (pag. 24) que do 1,4 milhões de milhões de dólares de estimativas de perdas "apenas" 725-820 mil milhões (ou seja cerca de 55%) afectam os balanços dos bancos. Do restante, 150-250 mil milhões (ou seja cerca de 14,3% do total) afectam seguradoras, 125-250 mil milhões (13,4%) fundos de pensões, 100-135 mil milhões (8,4%) o Governo dos EUA através da Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac e finalmente 115-225 mil milhões (12,1%) hedge funds e outras instituições, a respeito dos quais Nouriel Roubini refere o seguinte:
"the "shadow banking system” (as defined by the PIMCO folks) or more precisely the “shadow financial system” (as it is composed by non-bank financial institutions) will soon get into serious trouble. This shadow financial system is composed of financial institutions that – like banks – borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets. This system includes: SIVs, conduits, money market funds, monolines, investment banks, hedge funds and other non-bank financial institutions. All these institutions are subject to market risk, credit risk (given their risky investments) and especially liquidity/rollover risk as their short term liquid liabilities can be rolled off easily while their assets are more long term and illiquid. Unlike banks these non-bank financial institutions don’t have direct or indirect access to the central bank’s lender of last resort support as they are not depository institutions. Thus, in the case of financial distress and/or illiquidity they may go bankrupt because of both insolvency and/or lack of liquidity and inability to roll over or refinance their short term liabilities. Deepening problems in the economy and in the financial markets and poor risk managements will lead some of these institutions to go belly up: a few large hedge funds, a few money market funds, the entire SIV system and, possibly, one or two large and systemically important broker dealers. Dealing with the distress of this shadow financial system will be very problematic as this system – stressed by credit and liquidity problems - cannot be directly rescued by the central banks in the way that banks can."

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