Os valores das vendas a retalho hoje publicados apontam para uma quebra de 1,2% em Setembro face ao mês anterior (em Agosto a quebra foi de 0,4% face a Julho). E o famoso Beige Book (http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2008/Default.htm) hoje divulgado indica que "economic activity weakened in September across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. Several Districts also noted that their contacts had become more pessimistic about the economic outlook. Consumer spending decreased in most Districts, with declines reported in retailing, auto sales and tourism. Nearly all Districts commenting on nonfinancial service industries noted reduced activity. Manufacturing slowed in most Districts. Residential real estate markets remained weak, and commercial real estate activity slowed in many Districts. Credit conditions were characterized as being tight across the twelve Districts, with several reporting reduced credit availability for both financial and nonfinancial institutions. District reports on agriculture and natural resources were mostly positive, although adverse weather associated with hurricanes Ike and Gustav negatively affected the South and the Midwest."
Entretanto, os bancos JPMorgan e Wells Fargo deram indicações de que se está já a assistir a uma deterioração significativa do crédito ao consumo (http://www.bloomberg.com/) e surgiram notícias de que alguns hedge funds estariam numa posição complicada (http://www.cnbc.com/id/27204824).
Isto num dia em que o presidente da Reserva Federal afirmou que "Stabilization of the financial markets is a critical first step, but even if they stabilize as we hope they will, broader economic recovery will not happen right away. Economic activity had been decelerating even before the recent intensification of the crisis. The housing market continues to be a primary source of weakness in the real economy as well as in the financial markets, and we have seen marked slowdowns in consumer spending, business investment, and the labor market. Credit markets will take some time to unfreeze. And with the economies of our trading partners slowing, our export sales, which have been a source of strength, very probably will slow as well. These restraining influences on economic activity, however, will be offset somewhat by the favorable effects of lower prices for oil and other commodities on household purchasing power. Ultimately, the trajectory of economic activity beyond the next few quarters will depend greatly on the extent to which financial and credit markets return to more normal functioning." (meu sublinhado). E noutra conferência o Vice-Presidente da Reserva federal Donald Kohn referiu "the most probable scenario as one in which the performance of the economy remains subpar well into next year and then gradually improves in late 2009 and 2010".
Perante estas notícias o S&P 500 caiu 9%. E, apesar disso, os yields de obrigações a 10 anos caíram apenas muito ligeiramente (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETNX).